Matric 2013: Why the FState and NWest's success is illusionary

James Myburgh

07 January 2014

James Myburgh says the two top-ranked provinces owe their position to a massive drop-out rate post-Grade 10

One of the surprises of the 2013 government matric results has been the fact that the Free State (87.4%) and North West (87.2%) secured higher pass rates than both Gauteng (86.9%) and the Western Cape (85.1%), which was pushed into fourth place in the rankings (see table 1 below).

In their reactions to the results both Minister of Basic Education, Angie Motshekga, and the African National Congress, cited the top rankings of these two provinces to rebut claims that the ANC government had failed to deliver decent education to the poor. The ANCstated that: "We are particularly proud of and congratulate the Free State and North West Provinces which were ranked 1st and 2nd best performing provinces respectively. These provinces, which are largely rural and under-resourced, occupy pride of place in our national schooling system."

Critics of the DA in the Western Cape gleefully seized upon the province's slide in the rankings to argue that the Zille administration was failing to deliver. NEHAWU slammed the province's "mediocre performance" while ANC Western Cape leader Marius Fransmanexpressed disappointment at the results and called for a shake-up of the provincial education department.

When it comes to Bachelors degree passes - the pass needed to progress on to university study - the Western Cape (40.9%) and Gauteng (38.9%) were ranked first and second, ahead of the North West (34.9%) and Free State (33.1%). Nonetheless, the performance of these two "rural and poor" provinces, as Motshekga describes them, is nonetheless striking. The substantial increase in the government matric pass rate in 2013 still needs to be subjected to proper forensic analysis. However, what the provincial rankings illustrate are the danger of using the pass rate as the sole measure of performance in matric.

Table 1: Government 2013 matric examination results by province

Wrote       Passed      % pass     Ranking      Bachelors degree pass      BP %           Ranking 

EASTERN CAPE 

72 138     46 840      64.9%      9                 13 686                             19.0%          9

FREE STATE 

27 105     23 689      87.4%      1                   8 961                             33.1%          3

GAUTENG 

97 897     85 112      86.9%      3                  38 104                            38.9%          2

KWAZULU-NATAL 

145 278   112 403    77.4%      6                  47 202                            32.5%          5

LIMPOPO 

82 483     59 184      71.8%      8                  18 781                            22.8%          8

MPUMALANGA 

50 053     38 836      77.6%      5                  12 954                            25.9%          6

NORTH WEST 

29 140     25 414       87.2%     2                  10 166                           34.9%          4

NORTHERN CAPE 

10 403       7 749       74.5%     7                     2 424                           23.3%         7

WESTERN CAPE 

47 615      40 542      85.1%     4                   19 477                           40.9%         1

NATIONAL 

562 112    439 769    78.2%     N/A             171 755                          30.6%         N/A

One of the ways schools and provincial administrations have been traditionally able to increase their pass rates is by "culling" weaker pupils between Grades 10 and Grade 12. In other words huge numbers of ill-educated pupils fall or are pushed out of the system before they even sit down to write final National Senior Certificate examinations.

One means of controlling for this is to measure the number of government matric passes against the number of pupils in Grade 10 two years previously. This is not a perfect measure as higher numbers of pupils tend to be held back in Grade 10 than in earlier years (see the paper by Dr Stephen Taylor here - PDF.) Another wrinkle is that while the Department of Basic Education provides a breakdown, in its published literature, of the number of pupils in independent and government schools in Grade 10 it is does not provide a similar breakdown for the government matric exam results, even though a significant number of pupils in independent schools sit this exam rather than the IEB one. The effect is however relatively marginal given the small percentage of pupils (4%) in independent schools.

If one measures, by province, the ratio of the 2013 government matric results against the 2011 Grade 10 government school enrolment figures it is evident that the Free State and the North West owe much of their current success to an exceedingly high drop-out rate in the two years preceding matric. Indeed, of all provinces, the North West had the highest drop-out rate between Grade 10 and matric (56.5%) with the Free State following closely behind (54.8%). By contrast, the Western Cape had by far the lowest drop-out rate (35%), followed by KwaZulu-Natal (42.1%) and Gauteng (43.2%). See Table 2.

Table 2: Number of government matric passes in 2013 against the number of pupils in Grade 10 in 2011*

	Pupils in grade 10 in 2011	Numbers who wrote govt matric in 2013	% of 2011	Passed	% of 2011	Rank	Bachelors pass	% of 2011	Rank
EASTERN CAPE	144 855	72 138	49.8	46 840	32.3	9	13 686	9.4	9
FREE STATE	60 012	27 105	45.2	23 689	39.5	5	8 961	14.9	5
GAUTENG	172 430	97 897	56.8	85 112	49.4	2	38 104	22.1	2
KWAZULU-NATAL	250 755	145 278	57.9	112 403	44.8	3	47 202	18.8	3
LIMPOPO	173 722	82 483	47.5	59 184	34.1	8	18 781	10.8	8
MPUMALANGA	92 677	50 053	54.0	38 836	41.9	4	12 954	14.0	6
NORTH WEST	66 916	29 140	43.5	25 414	38.0	6	10 166	15.2	4
NORTHERN CAPE	21 162	10 403	49.2	7 749	36.6	7	2 424	11.5	7
WESTERN CAPE	73 261	47 615	65.0	40 542	55.3	1	19 477	26.6	1
NATIONAL	1 055 790	562 112	53.2	439 769	41.7		171 755	16.3

Dividing the number of pupils who passed the 2013 government matric over the number of Grade 10 pupils in ordinary public schools in 2011 - rather than simply the number who sat the examinations - may be a somewhat crude measure, given the provisos mentioned above, but it provides a far more realistic picture of provincial performance. On this measure the Western Cape has by far the highest percentage passing matric (55.3%), followed by Gauteng (49.4%) and then KwaZulu-Natal (44.8%). The Free State and North West come limping in, in 5th and 6th place respectively.

What this does not explain however is the jump in the government matric pass rate to 78.2% in 2013 from 73,9% in 2012, and 70,2% the year before that. The degree to which this increase reflects political manipulation, rather than an underlying improvement in educational standards, awaits further analysis.

***

Data sources: DBE, Education Statistics in South Africa reports from 2006 - 2011, NSC examination reports 2008-2013

This article was published with the assistance of the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit (FNF). The views presented in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of FNF.